The sensitivity of ball release velocity, v0, and release angle, θ¸0, to estimation methodology has often been overlooked in previous studies. In particular, an estimation process must ensure that variability in ball location from frame to frame does not contribute more to the estimated velocity and angle variation than the shooter. As noted earlier, previous studies (Okazaki and Rodacki, 2012; Miller and Bartlett, 1993; 1996; Rojas et al., 2000) have reported SDs in release velocities for three-point shots ranging from 0.36-0.8 m/s, which are almost an order of magnitude larger than expected based on reported make percentages and numerical simulations. In such cases, it’s suspected that the estimation process may largely contribute to the reported SDs. To illustrate the challenge in estimating v0 and θ¸0, consider the simplest kinematic method where only a few ball CG locations near release are used. Velocity can be found by multiplying displacement by the frame rate. However, for fast frame rates, even small variations in location estimates result in significant changes. Reduction in sensitivity to ball CG estimates can be achieved by using frames separated by more time, however, estimates for the release angle would be adversely affected since the path’s curvature and velocity reduction from drag would contribute to errors. These limitations are present in both video and motion capture systems. An essential tool for minimizing estimation error of a shot release is the development of an accurate and preferably analytic ball trajectory model to provide robust filtering of raw measurements, ensure kinematic consistency, and reduce noise. Development of the model begins by recognizing that once the ball is released, only gravity and aerodynamic forces remain. The shooting process can be treated as the shooter attempting to achieve an initial release velocity, v0, and angle, θ¸0, based on their distance from the basket so that the ball goes through the basket. The equation governing the motion of the basketball after release is
where v = vxi + vyj and a = vxi + vyj are the ball’s velocity and acceleration, fW = – (ma + mb)gj and fB = magj are the weight and buoyancy forces, and mb, ma, and mt, are the mass of the ball, the air inside the ball, and the total combined mass, respectively. Using a conventional projectile drag model, drag can be written as
where D is the ball’s diameter, is the total speed, and CD is the drag coefficient. Combining force components with (1) results in the following two nonlinear coupled differential equations
where m' = mb/mt.
Solutions to (3) and (4) can be found by numerical integration as in Silverberg et al. (2003) and Okubo and Hubbard (2006), however, numerical solutions are not conducive to parametric analysis. Approximate solutions to (3) and (4) have been proposed by many authors. The most common technique is to assume that the drag force is small compared to the combined weight and buoyancy forces so that drag can be neglected altogether. This may be quantified by defining the drag to weight ratio as
so that if RDW is small, the drag in (3) and (4) may be neglected. In such a case (3) and (4) become two decoupled linear differentials with the well-known parabolic projectile solution. However, they only approximate the general solution when the velocity is small, and the mass is large compared to the object’s diameter. For a standard men’s basketball with D = 0.241 m, mb = 0.624 kg, CD = 0.5, and a three-point initial velocity of 8.8 m/s, the resulting RDW is 0.18, approaching nearly 20% of the total force. An improved approximate solution incorporating drag can be found using techniques employed by the exterior ballistics literature where it’s often assumed that if the velocity is very high or the velocity range is small (the latter applicable to basketball), CD can be accurately approximated by k/V, where k is a known constant. Applying this approximation and defining the ballistic coefficient
as a known constant, (3) and (4) become two decoupled linear differential equations with the following analytic trajectory solution:
To demonstrate the importance of drag, trajectories for both a three-point shot and free throw using a no drag parabolic model and the proposed CD = k/V model (6-7) are compared with numerical integration of (3) and (4). Figure 2 shows all three trajectories for a shot released 6.56 m from the center of the basket for a three-point shot and 4.00 m for a free throw, both from a height of 2.54 m. In order to pass through the hoop, the three-point shot is released with a velocity of 8.76 m/s and an angle of 48 degrees, while the free throw is released with a velocity of 6.93 m/s and an angle of 48 degrees. From Figure 2 it’s clear that neglecting drag results in significant trajectory errors while the approximation CD = k/V provides an excellent approximation to the full model. The maximum trajectory errors for the proposed model with CD = k/V are an order of magnitude smaller than the conventional no drag models often used. For the three-point shot, maximum errors in trajectory, time of flight, and final approach angle are only 2.6 cm, 6 ms, and 0.4 degrees, respectively, for the proposed model, while they grow to 53.1 cm, 45 ms, and 2.2 degrees for the no drag model. In this study, long trajectory segments spanning multiple ball CG estimates along with the proposed trajectory model are used within a least squares estimator to improve estimates of the initial position (x0, y0), v0, and θ¸0. This decreases overall sensitivity to variations in individual ball CG locations, while also compensating for the effects of drag. To form the least squares estimator, the analytic trajectory approximations found in (6) and (7) are written as two scalar nondynamic systems
where xÌ‚ and yÌ‚ are vectors to be estimated. Measurements, x̃ and ỹ, due to noise, will not uniquely satisfy (8) and (9). Rather, for n measurements, the scalar equations can be placed in the matrix form with x̃ and ỹ being n x 1 measurement vectors from the left side of (8) and (9) and H being an n x 2 matrix formed by concatenating [1 (1 - e-βtθ¹)/β]. Using vector calculus, estimates for xÌ‚ and yÌ‚ which minimize the error become (HTH)-1 HT x̃ and (HTH)-1 HTỹ, respectively. The robustness of the proposed least squares estimator (LSE) incorporating the analytic drag model is assessed by comparing estimates of v0 and θ¸0 to those of a simpler two-point kinematic method as the estimated initial CG location is varied. A three-point shot that resulted in a make with no rim contact was selected as the baseline case considering the final location is known. The two-point method used i =1 and 3 in Figure 1 and estimates v0 using a finite difference approach while assuming a no drag straight-line trajectory to estimate θ¸0. The proposed LSE used ten CG locations (i = 1-5, 13-17). Using the same identified CG locations (original), Table 1 shows that both estimates are similar. However, when the initial CG location is moved left by 1.0 cm (4% of the ball’s diameter) the LSE method changes by only 0.01 m/s (<0.1%) and 0.1 degrees (0.2%). In contrast, the two-point method results in a change of 0.21 m/s (2.4%) in v0 and -1.4 degrees (3.0%) in θ¸0. The sensitivity of the two-point method, and robustness of the LSE method, are further illustrated by showing how the trajectory solution for the final distance reached (xF) at rim level changes. Table 1 shows that even after the initial CG location was changed, the LSE xF distance only varied by 1.1 cm. However, for the two-point method, the original data results in the shot missing by 21.2 cm short, and with the CG changed by only -1.0 cm it’s then long by 10.4 cm and can’t reliably predict the shot result and has a variation in v0 comparable to that of a potential shooter. |